Project Vote 2018: Michigan, A Chance to Turn Blue?

The following article about the upcoming 2018 Michigan election is part of a three-semester-long project called Vote 2018: The Future of America.  The project, which began in fall 2017, is examining three states (Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada) and how the dynamics of a politically divided nation will impact the 2018 midterm elections. PalacioMagazine.com teamed up with the fall semester classes of Political Science Professor Som Chounlamountry at California State University, Long Beach (CSULB).

This Michigan 2018 election paper was researched and written by students June Yoo, Raul Gomez, Tiffany Sosa, Jonathan Cordova, Chelsea Teebken, Kevin Konig, Estela Garcia and Oliver Hernandez Estrada from POSC 450, Section 2 and 3. The team focused on Michigan’s Eighth Congressional District and their U.S. Senate race. 

The Michigan Political Landscape

Donald Trump won Michigan’s six electoral votes in the 2016 election, turning around a state that voted for Barack Obama in 2012. A total of 12 districts in Michigan flipped on behalf of Donald Trump. But the win was razor thin: 47.5% or 2,279,543 for Trump vs. 47.3% or 2,268,839 for Clinton. In 2016, according to Ballotpedia, all 14 seats of Michigan’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives were up for contention. Republicans were able to hold on to 9 of the 14 seats. We’re looking at Michigan’s Congressional Eighth District for this 2018 research project. According to Ballotpedia, Michigan’s Congressional District 8 is located in the mid-region of the lower peninsula of Michigan. It includes Livingston and Ingham counties and sections of Oakland County.

Michigan Congressional Districts (Michigan.gov)

Demographic Data

U.S. Census data put the total population in the district at 734,008 people with 677,497 eligible to vote. When considering race, the Census Bureau found that the majority of the population consists of 624,088 White people and a minority of 38,761 Hispanic or Latino people and 41,615 Black people. Furthermore, out of 277,822 total households, the median household income is $66,495 a year while the average household income is $89,298 a year. According to Census statistics, 6.3% of the population has an income that is below the poverty level and the unemployment rate is 9.2%. The high school graduation rate is 92.2% while the graduation rate for college students is 36.5%.

The Michigan Congressional Race

The Republican incumbent, Mike Bishop, was re-elected to his seat in Congress for the Eighth District in 2016. Bishop defeated Democrat Suzanna Shkreli by a margin of 16.9%, 205,617 votes to 143,775.

Congressman Mike Bishop (mikebishop.house.gov)

From Ballotpedia:

“In the past, Bishop was previously a Republican member and Majority Leader of the Michigan State Senate, representing the state’s 12 Senate District, which encompassed the Eastern Detroit suburbs of Auburn Hills, Pontiac, Rochester and Rochester Hills. Due to Michigan term limits, Senator Bishop did not run for re-election in the Michigan State Senate elections of 2010.”

In 2014, he was elected to the Congressional seat for the Eighth District with 54.6% of the vote.

2018 Midterm Congressional Elections

Congressman Mike Bishop is running for reelection in the 2018 midterms. Facing off against him are two Democratic Party Primary candidates: Elissa Slotkin and Chris Smith.

Elissa Slotkin (Courtesy of elissaforcongress.com)

After graduating college and being a part of non-profit organizations, Elissa Slotkin attended Columbia University’s graduate school in New York City, in which she became a witness to the tragedy of September 11, 2001.  Encouraged to prevent future terrorist attacks, Slotkin was recruited to join the Central Intelligence Agency as a Middle East Analyst, where she did three tours in Iraq over the span of five years. She later worked for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and State Department.

According to her campaign website,  Slotkin “took part in various defense and intelligence roles” under the Bush Administration and the Obama Administration, which reinforced her promises to put her community’s needs over partisanship. Now with the new Donald Trump Administration, Slotkin has refrained from commenting on his presidency or his administration during her campaign announcement. According to Michigan Live News, Slotkin intended to not mention Trump in her campaign by saying, “It’s not about him — it’s about what I’m going to try and do for the district”. Slotkin has prided herself on working with both main political parties and staying away from divisive methods that have been clearly present in our current elections over the years.

Chris Smith has no political experience. His career background is having more than thirty years of experience as a teacher and writer on public policy, law, American government, and criminal justice.

Chris Smith (Courtesy of chrissmithformich.com)

According to his campaign website, his motivation to run has been fueled by the recent elections that have caused controversy and divisiveness in the nation today. Smith is clearly not a supporter of our current president and his administration. He actually has a donation webpage for his campaign on CrowdPAC, which is titled, “Fight Trump: Send an Outspoken Non-Politician & Policy Expert to Congress”. On the site, Smith emphasizes his lower-middle-class upbringing—minimum wage jobs and student loans—and lays out policies he believes will further appeal to his constituents. Chris Smith is an advocate for progressive programs addressing social justice issues.

The Race to Turn Blue

With the 2018 election coming up fast, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted Michigan’s Eighth Congressional District to turn Blue by supporting Slotkin. As told by Susan Demas, publisher of Inside Michigan Politics, in The Detroit News, Elissa Slotkin is being held up as a “tougher opponent” than Bishop has had in the past two elections. Demas believes that the position can be still up for grabs for either party since it could be a “crowded primary”. However, Ballotpedia Ballotpedia rates this race as safely Republican.

The United States Senate Race

Voters in Michigan will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 6, 2018. Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow is running for re-election.

U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (Courtesy stabenow.senate.gov/)

Stabenow was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2000. She won her third term in the Senate in 2012 with 58.8% of the vote. She ran unopposed in her last Democratic primary in 2012 and is not expected to face a competitive Democratic primary in August of this year.

“Stabenow began her political career in the Michigan House of Representatives, where she served from 1979 until her election to the State Senate in 1990. She served in the Senate until 1994 and was later elected to the U.S. House in 1996. Stabenow served in that position until her election to the U.S. Senate in 2000.”

Stabenow is considered a mainstream Democrat and more moderate-left, having supported the ACA and refusing to support tax cuts. She is also known for supporting more assertive foreign policy, supporting sanctions on Iran and boosting defense spending.

The Republican Senate Candidates

As of right now, there are three announced Republican candidates in the 2018 U.S. Senate primary race. The three are Bob Carr, John James, and Sandy Pensler. Polls show that John James as the most likely frontrunner of the Republican nominees. Until candidates are locked in, however, polls won’t be able to clearly depict who is in the lead and on their way to battling Democratic frontrunner Debbie Stabenow.

The Michigan Predictions

Congressman Mike Bishop is, so far, not facing any Republican candidates. While he will have one Democratic candidate after the August Primary, early predictions have him winning in November. The Cook Political Report is calling his Congressional District as ‘Leaning Republican.” Center for Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball is calling the race “Likely Republican.” In the U.S. Senate Race, polls are predicting that Debbie  Stabenow is likely to win her seat again. The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal ball, and Inside Elections are calling her seat, safe. She has a long history being a public servant and there is no evidence that people would stop supporting her next year.

However, in the current political climate where anything can happen in the run-up to the Primaries and the General Election, one might want to hold off on making predictions. Frustration and dissatisfaction among the middle of the road voter, growing activism from the left of center, and President Donald Trump’s actions in 2018 will be important factors in the mid-term elections. To be continued.

The filing deadline is April 24, 2018 and the primary election takes place on August 7, 2018.