Vote 2018
Vote 2018: The Future of America- The Nevada Elections
Editor: This article on the 2018 Nevada elections was researched and written by Political Science students in the Fall, 2017 at California State University, Long Beach (CSULB) in Professor Som Chounlamountry’s Section 4 class: Hugo Fernandez, Lillie Rellin, and Stephanie Lutfi.
Photo by drain
Nevada Elections in 2018
A seat in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional district and one for U.S. Senate are up for grabs in the November 2018 Nevada elections. There’s a long list of declared candidates in the 3rd District race. Seven Democrats and six Republicans are listed to compete in the June primary for the seat being vacated by the incumbent, Democrat Jacky Rosen. She’s declared to go after incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller’s Senate seat which he hopes to keep in November. Besides Rosen, two other Democrats and two Republicans have declared their interest in Heller’s seat.
The Big Picture of Nevada
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won Nevada over Donald Trump by a slim 2.4% of votes. That same year, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto won the U.S. Senate seat over Republican Joe Heck by a similar 2.4% margin. At the time, Heck was the representative from Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District but chose to run for Senate. With no incumbent in the 3rd District, Democrat Jacky Rosen defeated Republican Danny Tarkanian for the Congressional seat in a close election with a margin of only 1.2%.
As of December 2017, Voter Registration Statistics from the Office of Nevada Secretary of State Barbara K. Cegavske reveal a Democrat-heavy state, 637,450 vs. 540,208 registered Republicans. However, other parties and nonpartisan registered voters total a whopping 467,751, a potentially disruptive electoral force.
The top 3 issues in the Nevada elections are abortion, gun control, and immigration. Last year, controversy erupted over statements from “the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) [that] announced that they would not take into consideration a candidate’s stance on legalized abortion as part of the group’s decision to support a candidate for office during the 2018 elections.” Additionally, guns have become a major issue due to the last year’s mass shooting in Las Vegas. 50.4% of voters in 2016 voted yes on expanding the backgrounds needed to purchase a firearm. The enforcement of that initiative is controversial. Third, on immigration, the issue is complex. According to the most recent U.S. Census numbers, the percent of Foreign-born persons in Nevada was 19.3%. The American Immigration Council describes Nevada’s positive growth as being fueled by immigration.
“Immigrants are a vital part of the state’s labor force across sectors, accounting for nearly 40 percent of all workers in the hotel and food services industry as well as over a quarter of those in the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry. “
The Council states that nearly half of all immigrants in Nevada are naturalized U.S. citizens. The views of these immigrants could impact the vote in light of the current toxic debates in Washington over the future of immigration.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state but Democrats are growing ever confident that it will become a blue state due to the population growth of Latinos. According to the New York Times, Nevada “has the fastest-growing Latino population in the West.” With the recent history of Nevada having voted for Barrack Obama in 2008 and 2012, the six electoral votes presently seem to be more and more secure for Democrats. Outcomes of the 2018 elections will help to clear out this trend. You can read more on Immigration in Nevada and the Nevada elections at Ballotpedia.org.
The Nevada Elections: U.S. Senate
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- Sarah Gazala (Courtesy of www.sarahgazala4nevada.com)
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- Senator Dean Heller (Photo by Dean Heller)
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- Danny Tarkanian (Photo by Gage Skidmore)
In the Nevada elections for the U.S. Senate seat, Republican Incumbent Dean Heller will be running against two Republicans, Sarah Gazala, and. According to a most recent poll by JMC Analytics and Polling, the incumbent Heller (38%) is trailing challenger Tarkanian (44%) by six points. An interesting aspect in the Senatorial race is the Republican candidates’ positions in relation to President Donald Trump. Of the three Republican candidates, Sarah Gazala is furthest from aligning with Trump and his political views. Political website FiveThirtyEight.com has reported that while Dean Heller votes in line with Trump 90.4% of the time, he disagrees with him in the key issues of healthcare and imposing sanctions on Russia. Additionally, Trump and the Republican party have very publicly attacked Heller due to previous disagreements. Danny Tarkanian is far and away the biggest Trump supporter. Having lost five previous attempts at various offices, Tarkanian is intensely supporting every Trump platform.
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- Bobby Mahendra (Courtesy bobbymahendra.com)
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- Jesse Sbaih (Courtesy of jessefornevada.com)
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- Congresswoman Jacky Rosen (Courtesy rosen.house.gov)
The four Democrats running in the Nevada elections for the U.S. Senate seat are 3rd District Congresswoman Jacklyn Rosen, Bobby Mahendra, and Jesse Sbaih.
The Bottom Line
The race for the U.S. Senate seat held by Heller was rated a toss-up by three political reports including the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, and Inside Elections. CNN listed this seat among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.
The Nevada Elections: 3rd Congressional District
Nevada 3rd Congressional District (Courtesy rosen.house.gov)
The 2018 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Nevada will take place on November 6, 2018. All four of the state’s congressional districts will be on the November ballot. Heading into the mid-terms, the Democratic Party holds three of the four congressional seats.
The 3rd Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes a portion of Clark County. According to the Nevada Secretary of State voter registration numbers, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district, 150,772 vs. 143,047. However, another 117,299 voters declare themselves third-party or nonpartisan/other. That’s a lot of votes.
With 3rd Congressional District’s Jacky Rosen running for the Senate seat, the Congressional seat is open and there’s a crowded field of candidates. Currently, there are seven Democratic and five Republican candidates. The Democratic candidates are Hermon Farahi, Richard Hart, Susie Lee, Jack Love, Guy Pinjuv, Steve Schiffman, and Michael Weiss.
The Republican candidates are Eddie Hamilton, Scott Hammond, Stephanie Jones, David Owen McKeon, Michelle Mortensen, and Victoria Seaman.
The Bottom Line
The filing deadline for getting on the ballot isn’t until March 16, 2018, so the final list of candidates is not even known. On top of that, the Primary election isn’t until June 12, 2018. It may be way too early but that’s not stopping some predictions. Here are three political forecasts for the Congressional District election: the Cook Political Report is calling the race a Toss-up; Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts the race is Leaning Democratic Party, and Inside Elections describes the contest as Tilting Democratic Party.
Tracking the Nevada Elections
The CSULB Spring Political Science classes of Professor Som Chounlamountry will be tracking the Nevada races once the list of candidates is finalized. Nevada’s primary is June 12 and the general election is scheduled for November 6, 2018.
Photo by Dean Heller
